How Many Unsold Estimates Does an HVAC Company Have Right Now? (And How to Count Yours)

The short answer

The number lives in your own job software, and it takes under half an hour to pull. Filter for estimates sent but not approved in the last six months, count the households and add up the quotes at the values you wrote. The count is the list you can still text under CASL's six-month inquiry window, and the total is work already priced and waiting on a decision.

You know roughly how many quotes went out this fall. Your techs were in basements every week, and a good share of those quotes turned into installs.

The ones that didn't are harder to picture. The homeowner said they'd think about it. The tech drove to the next call, and the file sat. Nobody in the shop owns that pile, so nobody has counted it.

This fall I got two heat pump quotes for my own house. Neither company followed up. I'd bet both of them have me sitting in that pile right now.

Why the number stays hidden

The schedule shows you the work that said yes. A quote that never got a yes has no spot on the dispatch board, so it drops out of sight the day it goes out.

Somebody still drove out and priced the job. And most homeowners don't decide at the kitchen table. ServiceTitan's own data, from April 2026, says "Only 37% of in-home sales close on the spot." (ServiceTitan)

The rest walk away with your number in their hand. Some of them bought elsewhere. Some are still running the old furnace and meaning to call you back.

How to pull the list

Open the estimates or quotes screen in your job software, whether that's Jobber or ServiceTitan or something else. Then:

Use the estimate status filter to show estimates that were sent and not approved. Leave out drafts that never reached the customer.
Set the date range to the last six months.
Export the list or copy it into a spreadsheet so you can sort it.
Count each household once. If Sam got three options on one visit, that is one household. For the dollar value, keep the option your tech expected Sam to pick.
Take out anyone who has since booked the work or given you a clear no.

What's left is a list of households who asked for a price, got one and haven't answered.

Count it, then add it up

Two numbers come out of that list.

The first is the count. How many households are on it?

The second is the total at your own quote values. Add up the dollar figure on each estimate as written. Don't discount it and don't guess at what share would close. You are looking at work you already priced, sitting in your own files.

Write both down. Then put them into the payback check for HVAC companies, which takes those two numbers and shows what a few of those jobs would be worth to your year.

What the number tells you

Under 40 households in six months is a thin list. That can mean a few things, and it is worth knowing which:

Your close rate at the kitchen table is strong, and there just isn't much left over.
Your techs quote out loud or on paper, and those quotes never reach the software. The real list is longer than the one you pulled.
It was a slow stretch, and the list will grow by spring.

A longer list means more priced work waiting on a decision. Either way, the next move is to ask those homeowners where they landed.

The six months on your filter matters for a second reason. Under Canada's anti-spam law (CASL), a homeowner who made an inquiry and didn't buy gives you implied consent to commercial texts for six months from that inquiry. Someone who bought something from you gives two years from the purchase. (Act, section 10)

Count the six months from the day they first called you. That can be a week or two before the date on the estimate. Every text also has to name your business, give a way to reach you and offer an opt-out you honour within 10 business days. There is more on that in the estimate follow-up guide with the CASL detail. Run anything unusual past your own lawyer.

What to do with it this week

Sort the list by date, oldest first. Those households are closest to the six-month line.

Pick the ten oldest and have the office send each one a short text in your company's name:

Hi Sam, it's Larkfield Heating. You had a furnace quote from us back in June. Is that still on your list? Reply STOP to opt out.

When someone answers, the office calls them back the same day.

If you would rather not run the list yourself, Next Truck's free Estimate Sweep texts your unsold estimates in your company's name for 14 days and sends every reply to your office. The steps are laid out in how the free Estimate Sweep works.

Block half an hour on Thursday morning, pull the list and write the two numbers on a sticky note by the phone.

Common questions

Does an estimate from eight months ago still count?

It counts as work you priced, but it falls outside the six-month implied consent window for an inquiry. Unless that homeowner bought something from you in the last two years, or gave you express consent, leave them off the text list. A phone call is the safer route for those.

Should I count quotes my tech gave verbally?

Yes, if you can find them. Ask each tech to write down the households they quoted out loud this season. Those belong on the list, and they are the ones most likely to have been forgotten.

What about repair quotes, or only replacements?

Count both, but keep them in two columns. A $600 repair quote and a $9,000 furnace replacement tell you different things about the season. The replacements will carry the bigger share of the dollar total.

What if the homeowner already went with another company?

Some have, and you won't know until you ask. A quick no is useful: you close the file, and if they tell you why, you learn something about your price or your timing.

My office already calls people back. Isn't that enough?

If your office calls every unsold estimate and logs the answer, your list will be short and accurate. Pull it anyway and check the dates. If the calls stop in September, so did the follow-up.